Asia — Europe Rate Forecasts

Logistically has been receiving carrier notifications about planned General Rate Increases (GRIs) starting next month, which could affect multiple ocean freight routes.

While global demand for container shipping has dropped off from the peak of a couple of months back, the lines will be keen to get rates back up to a premium ready for contract negotiations for 2025.

Expect to see the now predicable wave of blanked sailings and suspended service loops aimed at cutting capacity—often signalling an upcoming rate increase.

These planned GRIs are focused on routes from Asia to Europe The exact increase levels are still unclear, but current indications are looking at around $1000 per 20’ and $2000 per 40’ from the 4th of November.

We have also been told to prepare for further increases after that and into early 2025 due to the following factors:

• Geopolitics: Political instability can have a significant impact on the market, particular the developing Middle East situation.
• Chinese New Year: Always a factor in short-term increases in rate levels. CNY falls early next year.
• Shipping bottlenecks: War and drought have created shipping bottlenecks around the world.

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